BEYOND ISS -NORMATIVE FORESIGHT REVEALS STEPPING STONES TO THE FUTURE

摘要

This paper outlines how normative foresight helps identify some critical stepping-stones to our future in space. It assumes a prior successful conclusion to a related exploratory foresight exercise, giving a clear description of a multitude of pathways between several exploratory scenarios in the far future and the present day landscape. Of focal interest is the plethora of important events along those pathways just beyond the strategic planning horizon. Rooted in the present and dealing with issues and technologies that are expected to mature during the lifetime of the International Space Station (ending roughly 2020), normative foresight elaborates a broad range of factors, and then selects from these a set of foundations upon which a future that is either desired or preferred can start to be constructed. To do this the normative process requires the opinions of generalists as well as specialists. Starting with a diverse array of conditions beyond the strategic time frame and some key value propositions that are deemed essential for creating widespread public support, the normative method provides practitioners and decision-makers with the ability to understand both technical and social risks, and to explain how they formed their conclusions. Put into practice, the method creates common purpose among disparate social groups that would otherwise have pursued divergent or conflicting goals. This paper provides insight into how to formulate and manage a Normative Foresight exercise, illustrated with examples.