AN ANALYSIS OF THE APPLICABILITY OF SPACE DEBRIS MITIGATION GUIDELINES TO THE COMMERCIAL SMALL-SATELLITE INDUSTRY

摘要

Current space debris mitigation guidelines recommend that orbital lifetime after mission completion must not exceed 25 years, if the satellite is not maneuvered to a disposal orbit. The present work investigates the feasibility of satisfying this guideline in the case of small satellites (smallsats) by considering the Technology Readiness Level (TRL) of current End-Of-Life (EOL) solutions. Specifically, we analyze strategies adopted by companies to satisfy the "25-year rule" for smallsats placed on Low-Earth Orbit (LEO). Given the forecast that hundreds of smallsats will be launched in the coming decade, we make specific recommendations to improve upon the "25-year rule", to ensure sustainable growth of the industry and minimal impact on the debris population. With the rapid development of the smallsat industry, driven by the successful use of Commercial-Off-The-Shelf (COTS) components, the economics of space have changed tremendously over the past two decades. Smallsat missions offer the advantage of shorter development time, and reduced manpower and infrastructure requirements over their larger counterparts. Consequently, new space companies, focused on leveraging the opportunity presented by smallsats, have emerged across the globe. The expected explosion of smallsat launches in the coming decade necessitates a careful assessment of the technical solutions and policies in place to ensure safe EOL disposal. Companies such as SpaceX, OneWeb and Planet Labs, have announced plans to launch hundreds of smallsats in the coming years. We analyze the potential challenges this generates in terms of current EOL technology and space policy. Based on our analysis, we provide a concrete set of recommendations to complement current Inter-Agency Space Debris Coordination Committee (IADC) guidelines. We analyze the applicability of the "25-year rule" to the smallsat industry and provide a set of tangible directives to mitigate future threat to operational satellites in LEO and the International Space Station (ISS). Our results provide policymakers and companies with a view towards the challenges emerging out of the smallsat industry and a strategy to update current space debris mitigation guidelines to support commercial ventures, whilst safeguarding the space environment.