Alumina aailability and prices: Implications for aluminium producers in the short-medium term

摘要

As we all well know the surge in first the spot then annual prices began in the fourth quarter of 2002. Spot prices for Australian material had been drifting in the 130-150 US dollars/t band for a period and then the full impact of China's 2003 25 percent growth in metal production started to bite in terms of alumina demand. Spot prices rose from 170 US dollars/t in early 2003 and rose to end the year around 360 US dollars/t. In late 2003 observers predicted more of the same for 2004, and further predicted a strong level in 2005 and then a softer market in 2006. The spot market rose quickly in 2004 to top out at 460 -480 US dollars/t in the 2 nd quarter before the impact of lower Chinese activity struck. The consequence for price has been that the spot price has retracted by a third since Q2 this year and only in recent weeks has again tended upwards, although on apparent thin activity.