Theory of Incident and its Prediction in the Process Industries

摘要

In this paper, the theories of incident are briefly reviewed with the aim of predicting incident occurrence. A series of unsafe act and condition is considered as the key elements leading to the occurrence of incident. The required elements for developing a framework for incident prediction are proposed. It is then shown that the predictive risk index proposed by Chen and Yang fulfills the required elements and also bears similarity to the control chart in statistical process control. The predictive risk index is reviewed in details and its statistical significance is discussed. The PRI reveals surprisingly good agreement with past incidents and actions to prevent incident during the past five years in a monomer plant. It is believe that the PRI will be a powerful tool for the safety management in the process plants.