Embracing Events in Causal Modelling: Interventions and Counterfactuals in CP-Logic

摘要

This paper integrates Pearl's seminal work on probability and causality with that of Shafer. Using the language of CP-logic, it transposes Pearl's analysis of interventions and counterfactuals to the semantic context of Shafer's probability trees. This gives us definitions that work not on the level of random variables, but on the level of Humean events. There are some tangible benefits to our approach: we can elegantly handle counterfactuals in the context of cyclic causal relations, and are able to consider interventions that are both more fine-grained and more elaborate than Pearl's.