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Modelling and uncertainty in system analysis for safety assessment

机译:安全评估系统分析中的建模与不确定性

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The paper addresses current issues related to modelling and uncertainty representing in quantitative risk evaluations. The problem is practically important because there are requirements to make uncertainty assessment of probabilistic and risk measures. Potential sources of uncertainty are discussed and theoretical frameworks for uncertainty representing are reviewed. For complex hazardous systems consisting of not well-defined components and failure events the possibilistic framework is proposed for the interval probabilistic and risk assessments.
机译:本文解决了与数量风险评估中的建模和不确定性有关的当前问题。问题实际上是重要的,因为有要求对概率和风险措施进行不确定性评估。讨论了潜在的不确定性来源,并审查了不确定性代表的理论框架。对于由没有明确定义的组件和故障事件组成的复杂危险系统,可能提出了可能的框架,以实现间隔概率和风险评估。

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