NEURAL NETWORK AND TIME SERIES AS TOOLS FOR SALES FORECASTING

摘要

This paper presents the use of times series AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average ARIMA(p,d,q) model with interventions, and neural network back-propagation model in analyzing the behavior of sales in a medium size enterprise located in Rio Grande do Sul Brazil for the period January 1984 - December 2000. The forecasts obtained using the neural network back-propagation model were found to be more accurate than those of ARIMA model with interventions.