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ON THE PROPAGATION OF ERRORS IN CATCHMENT MODELLING SYSTEMS

机译:论集水区建模系统中的错误传播

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The application of catchment modelling systems is now a common approach for management of catchments. Fundamental to the application of a catchment modelling system is the calibration and validation of the many control parameters used to ensure that the simulated catchment response adequately reproduces the actual catchment response. The calibration process, in general, consists of the systematic variation of control parameter values until a set of values is obtained that results in the adequate reproduction of the recorded catchment response. While this systematic variation may be undertaken manually, there have been a number of automatic calibration techniques which are based on the minimisation of differences between the predicted and recorded catchment response. Implicit in many of these techniques is the assumption that the residuals (ie variation between the predicted and the recorded catchment response) are independent, homoscedastic and normally distributed. Presented herein are the results of an investigation into these assumptions using the Powells Creek catchment in Sydney, Australia as a test catchment. It was found that these assumptions were not achievable on this typical catchment.
机译:集水模拟系统的应用现在是管理集水区的常见方法。对集水器建模系统的应用是校准和验证的校准和验证,用于确保模拟集距响应充分再现实际的集水响应。通常,校准过程包括控制参数值的系统变化,直到获得一组值,这导致记录的集距响应的足够再现。虽然可以手动进行这种系统变化,但是已经存在许多自动校准技术,这是基于预测和记录的集距响应之间的差异的最小化。这些技术中的许多内隐是假设残差(即预测和记录的集水区响应之间的变化)是独立的,同性恋和通常分布的。本文呈现的是使用澳大利亚悉尼的鲍威尔溪集水区调查这些假设作为测试集水区。发现这些假设在这个典型的流域上无法实现。

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