Enhanced reliability prediction method based on merging military standards approach with manufacturer's warranty data

摘要

This paper presents a practical method of enhancing the process of reliability prediction by merging empirical equations of MIL-HDBK-217 [1] with generic component failure rates, which are obtained from manufacturer's warranty data. Each of those two reliability prediction methods have advantages and disadvantages; though the appropriate combination of both would help the user to overcome their shortcomings and make the most of their benefits. The merging of the two methods can be accomplished by adjusting the appropriate empirical equations and coefficients from MIL-HDBK-217 by multiplying them by W{sub}(CF). Where W{sub}(CF) is a "warranty correction factor", derived from the analysis of manufacturer's warranty return data. The proposed procedure would greatly enhance the reliability prediction process by: a. improving the accuracy of MIL-HDBK-217 calculation technique b. providing a built-in consistency of the results with the product's warranty data c. utilizing product/component history d. allowing to account for specific component usage conditions e. minimizing the adverse effect of less certain variables, such as quality factor, serial resistance, and others, on the accuracy of reliability prediction. f. providing a higher degree of credibility in the eyes of the customer accustomed to traditional reliability prediction methods.