Judging Sufficiency: How Professional Intelligence Analysts Assess Analytical Rigor

摘要

This study examines how professional intelligence analysts judge the rigor behind an analysis. The study investigates the challenges that inhibit the understanding of rigor in intelligence analysis and explores cues used by analysts to identify analytic rigor-or lack of rigor. Nine professional intelligence analysts participated in a modified elicitation by critiquing method study, embedded in a scenario walkthrough. Findings from the study indicate that, while professional intelligence analysts can make perceptive assessments about the quality of an analysis process based on product quality, these perceptions are apt to change with insight into the analytic process.