METHODOLOGY FOR CALIBRATION AND SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS WITH APPLICATION TO CANNONSVILLE WATERSHED MODEL

摘要

Site-specific pollution transport models are based on field data and the calibration of the parameter values that cannot be directly measured. This combination of field data and calibrated model is a powerful tool in environmental analysis. However, one of the difficulties in using such models is that the calibration process can be computationally very demanding if it is done thoroughly. An even more serious computational obstacle is the quantification of the parameter sensitivity associated with models that have a large number of parameters. This paper discusses methods for calibration and sensitivity analysis and their combination with optimization algorithms. It also discusses applications to the large and highly significant Cannonsville watershed, which provides drinking water for New York City. The watershed model used is the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The sensitivity analysis method is applied to 160 parameters simultaneously. The methodology described can also be applied to other types of models arising in water resources and in hydraulics.