Prediction of hydrological extremes by air circulation indices

摘要

The study of air circulation variability is important for a belter understanding of river runoff. Research presented in this paper describes an attempt to find a link between air circulation on a large regional scale, and hydrological extremes of Carpathian river discharges in warm and cold seasons. The relationship between the North Atlantic Oscillation in winter, the Scandinavian baric system, and maximum and minimum river discharges was investigated over the period 1951-2000. Multiple correlation analysis was used, Some interesting relationships were found and multiple correlation formulae were developed for a few Carpathian basins. They may be used for hydrological forecasts of Carpathian extreme river discharges and they may allow the implementation of a warning system for extreme river events.