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A Hybrid Case-Based Reasoning Approach to Business Failure Prediction

机译:基于混合案例的业务故障预测推理方法

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Case-based reasoning (CBR) is a problem-solving and reasoning paradigm that can overcome limitations of the rule-based expert systems. Instead of rules, a CBR system stores and maintains past cases as a case base. When a new problem arises, the system searches through the case base for similar cases to construct a solution for addressing the new problem. Nearest neighbor is a common CBR algorithm for retrieving similar cases, whose similarity function is sensitive to irrelevant attributes. To ensure the effective retrieval of similar cases, a hybrid case-based reasoning approach which employs statistical evaluation for automatically assigning attribute weights and nearest-neighbor algorithm for case retrieval is proposed. This approach is applied to business failure prediction in Australia. The results indicate that in this case it outperforms discriminant analysis in terms of classification accuracy and is an effective and competitive alternative in providing early warnings of those companies at risk of failing in a comprehensible manner.
机译:基于案例的推理(CBR)是一个问题解决和推理范例,可以克服基于规则的专家系统的限制。代替规则,CBR系统存储并将过去的情况视为案例基础。当出现新问题时,系统搜索壳体基座以进行类似情况以构建解决新问题的解决方案。最近的邻居是用于检索类似情况的常见CBR算法,其相似度函数对无关属性敏感。为了确保有效检索类似情况,提出了一种用于自动分配属性权重和用于案例检索的最近邻近算法的混合案例的推理方法。这种方法适用于澳大利亚的业务失败预测。结果表明,在这种情况下,它在分类准确性方面优于判别分析,并且是一个有效且竞争的替代方案,在为这些公司的早期警告提供了以可理解的方式失败的风险。

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