Development of Water Resources Management Policies for Multi-Reservoir Systems using Simulation-based Soft Computing Models Approach

摘要

A heuristic simulation based optimization model has been developed to optimize the operation of a multiple reservoir using dynamic programming and soft computing techniques. Soft computing based tools including Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference systems (ANFIS) and Genetic Algorithms (GA) are used here to tackle the complexity of deriving the operational policies. This heuristic approach involves three stages in the model development. In the first stage GA is used to develop initial trajectories for DP model and then DP model results are used to adopt training data set for ANFIS model. Finally, a general operating policy is developed for multi-reservoir system operations. The demonstration is carried out through application of Parambikulam Aliyar Project systems in India. The performance of the proposed GA-DP-ANFIS is compared with simulation based multi regression model. Rule curves are developed for different scenarios like current operating policy, rezoning pattern, improved irrigation management and increase of available water potentials.