Forecasting Optical Network's Components Cost: A Simple Methodology

摘要

When planning optical networks, complementary to an accurate cost model, there is also the need referring to reliable trends/curves showing optical equipment production costs evolution, versus their technological maturity. The resulting curves could be useful, for instance, in evaluating the right timing to begin the deployment of a planned network, or in estimating the total cost of the initial investment. The adopted prediction model is based on the combination of an extended learning curve model and a logistic growth curve model. Cost curves were traced for some meaningful optical network components. The prediction procedures and computations are discussed taking into account the current photonics manufacturing environment. The conclusion is that only an improvement of the same factors (standardization, outsourcing and automation) characterizing the computer industry could really speed up a photonics products cost decrease.