Technology Forecasting Techniques In Communications

摘要

The desire to know "what the future holds" is an holy Grail for both corporate and technology strategy development. While jumps in technology are frequently, apparently, random and only monitoring weak signals in the environmental analysis can provide an insight into what may happen and when, prediction of developments in current technologies is a prime interest of technology forecasting. There are several techniques available to undertake this analysis and, while many of them are used to some extent, others are generally not. Some key techniques include Trend-line analysis, Fisher-Pry analysis and Gompertz analysis. One significant issue is the accuracy of these models, particularly in relation to projection from early data, and, hence, their usability for strategic information. Examples for this include applying poor parameter selection for Fisher-Pry and Gompertz analyses, leading to unrealistic assumptions about saturation values. This paper reviews these, and other, techniques and discusses a number of issues related to the relationship between forecasting and knowledge management and the suitability and the applicability of some of these techniques to the communications industry.