The failure may happen when the oil-filled transformer system is running. And perhaps it will make big damage. The on-line monitors for the electric power transformer is guarantee for the safety of power system. So the reliability of the transformer system is very important. People always make judgment about the condition from the dissolved gases (H{sub}2 CO{sub}2, CO, CH{sub}4, C{sub}2H{sub}4, C{sub}2H{sub}2, C{sub}2H{sub}6) in the transformer oil and partial discharge in the transformer. But it is not enough to get the right conclusion only from the data of dissolved gases and partial discharge. And it is difficult to predict the time that the system will be failure. The paper gives another way for predicting the condition of the oil-filled transformer. The analysis can get the inference from the past data of the transformer failure. The paper establishes Non-homogenous Poisson Procedure (NHPP) model for the power transformer system reliability. The paper is bifurcated. The first analyze the parameter resolve when the full failure data is got. The second discuss the parameter resolve when some failure data lost. With the parameters resolve and the NHPP model, the trends of the transformer failure can be got. And we can surmise the next failure time. Especially, with the limitation of the environment of the system running, it is very difficult to record every failure of the system. The paper analyzes the parameters of the model of the system reliability, gives the sufficient and essential condition for the parameters resolve when we get the full failure data, or some failure data lost. Together with the data of dissolved gas in oil and partial discharge in the transformer, it can get the conclusion for the condition of the running transformer without off-line. It is effective method to know the condition of the system.
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