DEVELOPING COMPLETE EVENT SCENARIOS STARTING FROM LIFELINES DAMAGE ASSESSMENT

摘要

In a research funded by the Regione Lombardia, a method to estimate seismic damage and to construct complete event scenarios has been developed. Interactions among lifelines and with urban and regional systems have been considered, in the attempt to measure not only physical ruptures but also systemic and organizational failures due to lifelines disruption. Firstly general frameworks to guide the construction of scenarios related to the emergency and the reconstruction phases have been structured. Physical, functional, and organizational links existing between lifelines and between the latter and other urban systems have been identified. Secondly, some of those interactions have been translated into detailed evaluation procedures: intrinsic damage to bridges, induced damage to roads due to buildings collapse and to landslides have been addressed by creating damage estimation models. Furthermore a model aimed at estimating losses in economic sectors as a consequence of damage to lifelines has been developed. Thirdly those procedures have been applied to some seismic municipalities in the Brescia Province, in Italy.