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STATISTICAL ESTIMATION OF MAXIMUM REGIONAL EARTHQUAKE MAGNITUDE mmax

机译:最大区域地震幅度mmax的统计估计

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This paper provides a generic equation for the evaluation of the maximum regional earthquake magnitude mmax. The equation is capable of generating solutions in different forms, depending on the assumptions of the statistical distribution model and/or the available information about past seismicity. It includes the cases (I) when earthquake magnitudes are distributed according to the doubly-truncated Gutenberg-Richter relation, (ii) when the empirical magnitude distribution deviates moderately from the Gutenberg-Richter model, and (iii) when no specific model of the magnitude distribution is assumed. Since the third procedure applied is non-parametric and does not require specification of the functional form of the magnitude distribution, its estimate of the maximum magnitude is considered more reliable than the other two, which are based on the Gutenberg-Richter model. Both synthetic, Monte-Carlo simulated seismic event catalogues, and actual data from Southern California, are used to demonstrate the procedures given for the evaluation of mmax. The three estimates of mmax for Southern California, obtained by the three procedures mentioned above are respectively: 8.32 ± 0.43, 8.31 ± 0.42 and 8.34 ± 0.45.
机译:本文提供了一种用于评估最大区域地震幅度Mmax的通用方程。该等式能够以不同的形式产生解决方案,这取决于统计分布模型的假设和/或关于过去地震性的可用信息。当经验幅度分布在从古顿伯格模型中偏离的双截断的古顿伯格关系时(ii)时,它包括壳体(i)案例(i),并且当没有特定模型时,经验幅度分布中等假设幅度分布。由于所应用的第三种程序是非参数的并且不需要规范幅度分布的功能形式,因此其对最大幅度的估计被认为比其他两个基于古顿伯格模型更可靠。合成的,蒙特卡罗模拟地震事件目录和来自南加州的实际数据,用于演示对MMAX评估的程序。通过上述三种方法获得的南部加州Mmax的三个估计分别:8.32±0.43,8.31±0.42和8.34±0.45。

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