Use of influence diagrams and fuzzy theory to develop assessment method of organizational influences on component maintenance

摘要

Organization can make influences on all the systems. Especially in case of nuclear power plants in which safety is established to be one of the most important operating goals, there have been a lot of research efforts for the hardware advancement. However in recent years, it has been widely recognized that organizational factors in nuclear power plants have an important influence on the safety attitudes and the safe behavior of individuals. Until now, any means to include assessments of organizational structure in probabilistic risk assessments have not been universally accepted. The objective of this work is to develop a method to assess organizational influences on component maintenance. Influence diagrams are introduced in this method as a decision making tool and fuzzy theory is used to reflect the vagueness in considering relevance of human activities in maintenance tasks. Introducing fuzzy theory to assess the organizational factors is deemed to a somewhat new trial, which makes it possible to convert linguistic vague descriptions into mathematical ones. Fuzzy linguistic descriptions offer an alternative and often complementary language to conventional, i.e., analytic approaches to modeling systems. Among the existing methodologies to assess organizational factors, the concept of the ω-factor model is utilized and the mechanism that organizational factors have influences on component maintenance is evaluated through composing influence diagrams. These influences go to failure rates and eventually affect component unavailability. Further study will make it possible that the influences of organizational factors on human error probabilities are incorporated into human reliability analysis and furthermore probabilistic safety assessment.