The profitability of individual ore blocks can be classed as clearly profitable, clearly not profitable, and those in between which are by nature quite sensitive to their major cost and revenue drivers. It is often the case that the most effort goes into the least profitable ore blocks to ensure that these will in fact not generate a loss. In these cases a cut-off grade policy is often not sufficiently live to separate individual sources given the volatility of financial markets and individual circumstances of some sources particularly in remnant operations such as Mount Isa Mines' Lead Mine. Standard sensitivity analysis can determine which factors stope profitability is most sensitive to. However, this does not usually indicate the likelihood of any input change, nor the combined effect of multiple inputs changing. The author attempted to modify the Lead Stream financial model that determines cash margin by inserting probability distribution functions and then using Monte Carlo simulations to determine the probability of any particular ore block making a profit. This effectively demonstrates the combined effect of varying a number of inputs simultaneously to provide a probability of making a profit. The limitations of this analysis lie in the accuracy that individual probability distributions can be specified. Attempts to generate valid functions from first principles have proved difficult for a number of reasons and these are discussed along with some practical alternatives.
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