THE DISASTER RESISTANT CAMPUS: CREATIVE LOSS MODELING AND RISK REDUCTION

摘要

A large campus of buildings, whether publicly or privately owned, presents unique risk management problems to the owners. In a setting where the earthquake risk is high, the owners must understand the vulnerabilities, in terms of capital losses, downtime, operational and economic impacts. Traditional methods for estimating losses based on structural conditions do not give owner/managers full information for risk management decisions. Faced with the problem of limited resources and uncertain solutions, planning for loss reduction needs to include multiple factors in the vulnerability assessment. For example, at U. C. Berkeley, a large campus of more than 100 buildings astride the Hayward Fault, a loss modeling and economic impacts study included assessments of structural and nonstructural building conditions, functional uses of space, critical operations, numbers of occupants, together with site and infrastructure information. This data was combined with an economic impact evaluation to allow planners to set building retrofit priorities, instigate targeted mitigation programs, and develop business resumption plans.