PHYSICAL-STATISTICAL METHODS OF ESTIMATION AND PROGNOSIS OF THE WINTER HYDROLOGICAL REGIME ELEMENTS IN THE NORTHERN CASPIAN SEA

摘要

Processes of growth and hummocking of the Caspian ice have been used to develop empirical equations for predicting total ice thickness and degree of hummocking. Air temperature and wind are the primary inputs. Conditions of floating ice drift, processes of interaction of drifting ice, and systematic changes of ice edge are considered. The significant influence of sea level volume fluctuations on biannual changeability of hummocking processes, ice dynamics and winter hydrological processes in general are based on a large amount of observational data.