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UTILIZATION OF THE POLAR ICE PREDICTION SYSTEM AT THE U.S. NATIONAL ICE CENTER

机译:利用美国国家冰中心的极地冰预测系统

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The mission of the National Ice Center (NIC) is to provide operational sea ice analyses and forecasts in support of the Department of Defense, U.S. Government and civil interests. NIC ice products, tailored to meet varying spatial and temporal requirements, range from weekly global-scale sea ice analyses to specially requested optimum ship track route recommendations to daily and weekly ice edge forecasts. These products are generated through the interpretation and integration of satellite imagery, meteorological and oceanographic observations, and output from numerical prediction models for weather and sea ice. The Polar Ice Prediction System (PIPS) 2.0 is a coupled ice-ocean model, with a domain including all ice covered seas in the Northern Hemisphere, that provides daily forecasts of key sea ice parameters out to five days. This study focuses on role of PIPS in creating sea ice products at NIC. It is shown that PIPS hindcast of sea ice drift in the East Greenland Sea agree very well with observed buoy drift. A 5-day ice edge forecast for the Bering Sea, validated against SAR imagery, is surprisingly accurate in some areas considering the long forecast period. However, this case also illustrates some weaknesses in PIPS, such as a tendency to form too much new ice in open water areas beyond the ice edge. Future developments in the PIPS model and the potential for expanded use of PIPS are also discussed.
机译:国家冰中心(NIC)的使命是提供运营海冰分析和预测,支持国防部,美国政府和民事利益。根据各种空间和时间要求量身定制的NIC冰制品,范围从每周全球规模的海冰分析到特殊要求的最佳船舶路线建议,每日和每周冰缘预测。这些产品是通过卫星图像,气象和海洋观测的解释和整合,以及从天气和海冰的数值预测模型输出。极性冰预测系统(PIPS)2.0是耦合的冰海模型,其中域包括北半球的所有冰川海洋,为左右的海绵参数提供每日预测到五天。本研究侧重于PIPS在NIC创建海冰产品方面的作用。结果表明,东格陵兰海域海冰漂移的点海灯与观察到的浮标漂移非常好。在考虑长期预测期的某些地区,验证了5天的白象,验证了5天的冰缘预测,验证了SAR Imagery。然而,这种情况也说明了点的一些弱点,例如在冰缘之外形成太多新冰的趋势。还讨论了PIPS模型中的未来发展以及扩展使用点的潜力。

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