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A fuzzy epidemic model based on gradual rules and extension principle

机译:基于渐进规则和扩展原理的模糊流行模式

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In the great majority of human intellectual activities, knowledge acquisition involves several levels of imprecision and uncertainty. This is particularly true in epidemiological and medical diagnosis problems. Recently, there has been an increase of the interest of epidemiologists, physicians and ecologists in fuzzy theory, with the aim of treating their problems in a more realistic way. Modelling epidemiological systems is a difficult task. This is particularly true for fuzzy epidemics models which usually rely heavily on experts knowledge. Our own experience in dealing with epidemiology and fuzzy epidemic modelling have showed us that in these case of biological, and particularly epidemiological, models it is often hard to find functional information shout the dynamics of the systems. In this context, the academic and heuristic knowledge of experts, as well as their experience, assume a fundamental role in this kind of modelling. However, experts may have serious problems to insight both the antecedents and the consequents of the rules when the model is oomplex. Furthermore, to create the consequents is a much more difficult task than the antecedents because in the former the expert needs to consider the dynamics of the system, weighting all influences that could concur, generating one specific output and its corresponding membership function. On the order hand, in order to create the antecedents, the expert needs only to classify the variables in groups, elaborating their membership functions. Therefore, in general, the expert has more facility to elaborate the antecedents than the consequents. In this sense, a method that allows the elaboration of the consequents of the linguistic rules would imply in an important progress in the modeling of systems which have a high level of uncertainties, impreciseness and/or vagueness in the variables, parameters or both. In addition,
机译:在大多数人类智力活动中,知识获取涉及几乎不确定和不确定性。在流行病学和医学诊断问题中尤其如此。最近,流行病学家,医生和生态学家在模糊理论的利益增加,目的是以一种更现实的方式对待他们的问题。建模流行病学系统是一项艰巨的任务。这对于模糊流行模型尤其如此,通常依赖于专家知识。我们在处理流行病学和模糊流行模型方面的经验表明,在这些生物学的情况下,特别是流行病学,模型往往很难找到功能信息喊出系统的动态。在这种情况下,专家的学术和启发式知识以及他们的经验,在这种建模中承担了基本作用。然而,专家可能会在模型是Oomplex时洞察前所不及的事件和规则的后果。此外,为了创造后果是一个比前一种更艰巨的任务,因为在前者中,专家需要考虑系统的动态,加权可以同意,产生一个特定输出及其相应的隶属函数的影响。在订单手上,为了创建前书,专家只需要将变量分类分组,详细说明其成员函数。因此,一般而言,专家有更多的设施来阐述前后的内容。从这个意义上讲,允许制定语言规则的后果的方法意味着在具有高水平的不确定性,变量,参数或两者中具有高水平的不确定性,不精确和/或模糊性的系统的重要进展中。此外,

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