EMISSION INVENTORIES FOR SO_2 AND NO_x IN DEVELOPING COUNTRY REGIONS IN 1995 WITH PROJECTED EMISSIONS FOR 2025 ACCORDING TO TWO SCENARIOS

摘要

Top-down inventories of anthropogenic SO_2 and NO_x emissions were compiled for 1995 for developing country regions. Regional emission factors were used to generate two sets of projected emissions for 2025. For the first set, regional emission factors were calculated assuming no further improvements in emission control over 1995 levels whereas for the second it was assumed that, by 2025, controls converge to the 1995 average levels for OECD countries. Without further improvements in emission controls, 2- to 4-fold increases in SO_2 and NO_x emissions are projected for developing country regions by 2025. Asian emissions would be particularly high with SO_2 and NO_x emissions projected to increase to 30.7 Tg S yr~(-1) and 8.8 Tg N yr~(-1) respectively in the 'China+' region (China, Korea (D.P.R.), Laos, Mongolia, Vietnam) and 18.6 Tg S yr~(-1) and 8.5 Tg N yr~(-1) in South & Southeast Asia. Mapping these emissions shows that the increases would be concentrated in eastern China, Taiwan and the Republic of Korea. Technological convergence of emission controls in developing country regions would lessen the projected emissions by 14% to 30% for SO_2 and by 10% to 20% for NO_x. A faster rate of emission control convergence and/or increased use of emission prevention approaches will be required if the l1/2- to 3-fold increases in SO_2 and NO_x emissions projected under the convergence scenario are to be avoided.