Study on the risk analysis methods and their applicability to the development of materiel

摘要

This paper mainly studies the risk analysis methods and their applicability to the development of materiel. First of all, it depicts the features and mission in every phase of materiel developmental projects, educing the curve which shows the change of risk and uncertainty with developmental process advancing. Second, several common risk analysis methods are introduced, including their input and output, advantages and disadvantages, then the applicabilities of each method are summarized. Therefore, an application solution which is suitable for every phase of materiel development is proposed. Finally, a case study is used to validate the rationality and correctness of this solution, which has reference for related engineer and technical personnel.