Mental Models and Decision Making In a Dynamic Health Care Environment

摘要

Forty-two senior managers (20 MD trained and 22 MBA trained) from two large managed care organizations were asked to make a series of strategic business decisions in a simulated (and dynamic) health care environment (Risky Business – developed by High Performance Systems). One half of the managers in each group (MD and MBA) were given a stable environment, characterized by constant levels of competition and stable economic conditions. The other half were given a turbulent environment characterized by aggressive pricing and quality improvements by competitors plus changing economic conditions. Each manager in each group was asked to make decisions that maximized the goals of financial performance and quality of care. In the stable environment, eight of 21 managers (2 MDs and 6 MBAs) using primarily feedforward decision control strategies (Brehmer, 1990) were able to stay in business for the full 20-year period of simulated time. In the turbulent environment, two of 21 managers (1 MD and 1 MBA) using financial mental models, were able to stay in business for the 20 years of simulated time. Mental models (financially-focused, quality-focused, balanced) of both successful and unsuccessful managers constrained task performance depending upon the degree of turbulence and the control strategy employed.