Uncertainty and Risk Models for Decision-Making Processes

摘要

In mine design and mine planning activities it is sometimes assumed that the block model provided by geologists or ore reserve estimators have no associated errors or uncertainties. This is usually the case simply because mine planners do not have a practical and useful way of quantifying this uncertainty on a block by block basis. The possible variations in ore resources and reserves are typically handled by applying a very simplistic sensitivity analysis to the, for example, pit optimization process. This can be done by adding or subtracting an arbitrary amount of contained metal to the block model that represents the ore resources, and observing the difference in resulting minable reserves and mine plans, and cash flows derived from them.