Utilizing Simulated Testing to Determine Probability of Failures in Safety Critical Systems

摘要

Simulation based testing to improve system safety creates new avenues to detect safety related design flaws early in the development process. Of particular interest is the ability to detect potential risks before they can result in accidents. The work described here builds on a recent paper that combined the Bernoulli and Bayes’ theorems to calculate distributions for probabilities of potential mishaps. Here the concept was expanded to demonstrate the combination of operational experience and expert opinion to improve on test result interpretation and mitigation identification. Finally, we add simulation to the mix of information to be rationally combined, introduce a two stage process, and draw conclusions regarding the simulation requirements.