Modelling the inner-European trade volumes of natural gas

摘要

This paper presents a subscripted model of the European gas market that aims on replicating the inner European gas flows. It succeeds in generating some of the reference modes but fails to reproduce the whole system. The model is analyzed and found consequential. The model is then used to analyze three scenarios: 1. The omission of long term contracts 2. The increase of LNG capacities 3. The implementation of bi-directional pipeline flows The model is used to show the possible trends in the given scenarios. It was found that the omission of long term contracts lead to a need of more gas. Increased LNG capacities lead to more competition and the implementation of bi-directional flows increases the system's flexibility.