Preference elicitation for a dynamic simulation: powertrain choices in the European Union car market

摘要

A nested logit model was estimated from a survey carried out among European car owners. For the purpose of improving choice assumptions, this model was embedded within the Powertrain Technology Transition Market Agent Model. This system dynamics model focuses on vehicle powertrain uptake in the European Union. This paper describes the modeling process and shows its application to German car sales market shares until 2025. In conclusion, the integration of discrete choice frameworks based on stated preference surveys into system dynamics models remains a useful approach to explore empirically-grounded factors of technology adoption and feedback processes.