Modeling material flows, cumulative material demand and market dynamics of industrial metals within a system dynamics framework An overview of concepts and exemplary models

摘要

A prerequisite for the implementation of targeted policies aiming at improving resource efficiency of industrial metals is a clear understanding of physical material flows and use patterns on the global and national level, including material distribution along the value chain and across economic sectors. This paper deals with different concepts for dynamic material flow modeling based on the System Dynamics approach. We present different exemplary outcomes of such material flow models for global and European copper flows. Using the commodity codes of trade data analyses for the European copper model as a connection point, we discuss a concept which links the material flow model to multisectoral economic models. The global copper flow model is finally supplemented by market dynamics in order to develop a flexible tool for global market forecasts, taking into account both restrictions of physical raw material supply and different forms of feedback effects on the supply and demand side of the metal market.