Low Carbon Development Strategy for the West African Electricity System: System Dynamic Approach

摘要

Infrastructure development including electricity system requires understanding of the trade-offs needed between economic growth versus climate change issues. This provides the context to explore low carbon development (LCD) pathways - with the electricity sector located at the heart of this trajectory. The premise of this study is that whilst large-scale economic development is needed to pull millions of citizens out of abject poverty, business-as-usual approach would exacerbate the problem of climate change with potentially irreversible long-term consequences. The study evaluated planning processes in the WAPP electricity system vis-a-vis LCDS; explored approaches to implementing LCDS options, to stimulate generation adequacy and security of electricity supply system; assessed LCDS regulatory option(s) to sustain LCDSs implementing options for generation adequacy and security of electricity supply; and, assessed the impact of generation adequacy and security of electricity supply against LCDSs on poverty alleviation, food security and security in the country/sub-region. The analysis of the study were premised on SD quantitative modeling approach, involving formulation and simulation of spheres and sectors linked to the electric system in the sub-region to form a complex link of feedback, analyzed and weighted as driving or limiting the Member States of ECOWAS LCD agenda.