Nuevo Leon's Public Debt: Analysis using Dynamic systems modeling

摘要

Public finances in decentralized governments, specifically public debt and its implications in the development of one state as Nuevo Leon are the main objectives in this research study. Using system dynamics modeling to represent the public debt model, simulations are being generated to assess the main variables involved in the process of government debt and its impact on public policy. Among the scenarios used in the simulations, the variables that represent the behavior of the indicators are: per capita public debt, government debt to gross domestic product (GDP) and public debt relative to income are evaluated until the year 2036. The main components of the system are normative, income and outcome, historical data is obtained from the Ministry of Finance and Public Credit of Mexico (SHCP), INEGI, and public accounts from Nuevo Leon state. The system dynamics modeling allows representing public policy guidelines prior to implementation under the structure of documented historical assumptions.