A simulation model for wheat-related policies and food insecurity in Egypt

摘要

The aim of this study is to propose a vision on how to achieve high level of food self-sufficiency in light of the available resources, expected future changes and future needs. This study defines the major driving forces that will improve the food security in Egypt based on data and economic indicators of wheat during the period (1986-2008). A system dynamics model was built to present the process of imports, demand and consumption of wheat in Egypt, through monitoring the increase in population undernourishment, and filling the gap between the desired quantity and the supply of wheat. Finally, sets of policies were formulated and suggested to improve food security in 2030, which are presented in the improvement of land management and productivity, increase of individual income, decrease of population growth, and building a strategic inventory of wheat for solving the problems of local supply.