A System Dynamic Hypothesis for the Disparate Alternative Fuel Vehicle Adoption Paths in Australia and the United States

摘要

This paper presents a system dynamic hypothesis for the disparate Alternative Fuel Vehicle (AFV) adoption behaviour observed in Australia and the United States. Based on the Bass diffusion model, the paper incorporates consumer decision-making theories with system dynamic modelling to reveal the underlying dynamics rooted in individual adoption behaviour. Consumer adoption decision process literature identified the number and variety of models as crucial to the adoption of AFVs. As a necessary condition within the decision-making process, the number and variety of AFV models can limit the vehicle consumers' willingness for considering an AFV. The hypothesis presented depicts the growing rate of AFV adopters as the main driver to the growth of number and variety of AFV models. An approach to undertake the further work of testing the hypothesis is also discussed in this paper.