Disaster Debris Management and Recovery for Housing Stock in San Francisco, CA

摘要

In the wake of the next large-scale earthquake in the City of San Francisco, an expected 85,000 households are expected to become uninhabitable and beyond repair, leaving thousands of residents with immediate needs for shelter. Coupled with an overwhelming 6.8 million tons of debris generated, destroyed lifelines and affected livelihoods, recovery planning becomes critical for immediate response and long-term sustainable development of San Francisco. Learning from recent disasters in Haiti, New Zealand and Japan, this research addresses relevant recovery issues by investigating the effects of a 7.2 magnitude earthquake in San Francisco, particularly the implications on the City's residential housing stock and impacts on the construction and demolition waste stream. Using System Dynamics as the driving methodology, a pre- and post-earthquake scenario is modeled for multi-family, wood-frame housing stock and waste cycles for the City and County of San Francisco to understand the complex nature of post-disaster debris removal and resource management and needs for long-term recovery.