A Systems Thinking approach to the analysis of economic impacts related to transportation shutdowns: the ATTACS project

摘要

Closing down a transportation system for one or more days due to a potential terrorist attack is not a measure that decision-makers tend to take lightly. However, despite its importance, the EU currently has no common framework or an organization, to deal with such issues in the transportation sector. The ATTACS project aims at providing a tool that will help decision-makers to evaluate the effects (direct and indirect and under economic terms) of a public transportation system closedown. The aim of this paper is to present an initial qualitative mapping of those effects. The approach that will be used is System Dynamics, since it offers a lot of advantages in comparison to other methodologies. The ATTACS project will account for effects in different sectors (transportation, economy, business and the public), across different time horizons (short- and long-term), across different spatial dimensions and for different types of events (terrorist attacks and terrorist threats). The provided CLDs are an initial evaluation of those effects and how they are (or might be) related. They will serve as an initial framework and will be validated and expanded in Group Model Building sessions with experts. The final objective of the ATTACS project is to create a Decision Support System that will facilitate decision-makers to reach better decisions on a subject that cannot be easily specified in advance, can change rapidly and its effects can be cascading and of great magnitude.