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Post-Inference Prior Swapping

机译:推理后的后续交换

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摘要

While Bayesian methods are praised for their ability to incorporate useful prior knowledge, in practice, convenient priors that allow for computationally cheap or tractable inference are commonly used. In this paper, we investigate the following question: for a given model, is it possible to compute an inference result with any convenient false prior, and afterwards, given any target prior of interest, quickly transform this result into the target posterior? A potential solution is to use importance sampling (IS). However, we demonstrate that IS will fail for many choices of the target prior, depending on its parametric form and similarity to the false prior. Instead, we propose prior swapping, a method that leverages the pre-inferred false posterior to efficiently generate accurate posterior samples under arbitrary target priors. Prior swapping lets us apply less-costly inference algorithms to certain models, and incorporate new or updated prior information "post-inference". We give theoretical guarantees about our method, and demonstrate it empirically on a number of models and priors.
机译:虽然贝叶斯方法被称赞为他们在实践中纳入有用的先验知识的能力,但常用于允许计算廉价或易诊推理的方便前置。在本文中,我们调查以下问题:对于给定的模型,可以使用先前的任何方便的错误来计算推理结果,之后,给定任何感兴趣的目标,快速将此结果转换为目标后部?潜在的解决方案是使用重要性抽样(是)。但是,我们证明了,这将在目标的许多选择中,这取决于其参数形式和与错误的相似性。相反,我们提出了先前交换,一种方法,该方法利用预推断的假后被效能地在任意靶前沿有效地产生精确的后样品。先前交换允许我们将更昂贵的推理算法应用于某些模型,并结合新的或更新的先前信息“后推理”。我们对我们的方法提供理论保障,并在多种模型和前瞻验证上展示它。

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