Energy efficiency program designers, operators, and evaluators often use pre-existing conditions as the benchmark against which they measure energy savings for retrofit projects. Energy codes tend to be used to define the baseline for new construction or for replacements on failure. The savings is then projected for the duration of the measure life. This paper argues that such an approach is inaccurate in some circumstances and tends to bias savings upwards compared to reality. Such application is often irrelevant for industrial process projects, where no code exists and where measures affect productivity. The baseline is the least efficient, non-regressive, code or regulations-compliant option specific to a particular facility and application that the customer technically, functionally, and economically could have alternatively considered to deliver the post-retrofit level of production or service. The paper offers a series of definitions and a logical flowchart that energy efficiency program designers and evaluators can use to determine baseline operating conditions for industrial projects. The logic model includes consideration of such factors as: 1. Energy efficiency projects that increase productivity 2. Partial free ridership 3. Fuel switching 4. Defining baseline in the absence of energy code 5. Minimum available efficiency versus market standard practice 6. Measure life and remaining useful life Evaluators, and in some cases program implementers, in California and New York have started using variations of this flowchart logic-driven approach to estimate savings. The approaches and concepts presented in this paper are based on the experience of evaluating many industrial projects in these two states. The generalized framework described in this paper may get further refined or adapted in the future as more experience is gained in California, New York and elsewhere and as jurisdiction-specific and program-specific aspects are considered.
展开▼
