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Future scenarios: business and social implications of rapid technology introduction and adoption

机译:未来情景:快速技术的业务和社会影响介绍和采用

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It is frequently assumed that the introduction and adoption of new technology improves productivity, and that if productivity improvements result from this new technology that the net social and economic impacts will be positive. However, there is considerable uncertainty associated with the rapid introduction of information technology. What if the rate of adoption exceeds society's or individuals' abilities to adapt? What if the introduction remains chaotic for an extended period of time? These uncertainties raise critical questions, which are difficult to answer at this time: what if the net impacts are not positive? What if economic benefits are distributed in ways that are socially destabilizing? What if income distribution is further skewed, with higher skilled personnel becoming better compensated, while many people are deskilled and effectively unemployable at jobs comparable to their current jobs and at salaries comparable to what they are earning today? The paper examines, but does not resolve, these questions.
机译:经常假设新技术的引入和采用提高了生产力,如果生产率改进是由这项新技术产生的,即净社会和经济影响将是积极的。然而,与信息技术的快速引入存在相当大的不确定性。如果采用率超过社会或个人的适应能力,怎么办?如果介绍延长了一段时间仍然混乱,怎么办?这些不确定性提出了关键问题,这难以在这一次难以回答:如果净影响不是积极的,那么怎么办?如果经济效益以社会稳定的方式分发,那么怎么办?如果收入分配进一步歪曲,有更高的技术人员会变得更好的赔偿,而许多人则在与他们目前的工作相当的工作中桌面,有效地失业,而是与他们今天所在的薪酬相当?纸张检查,但不解决这些问题。

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