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Methodology of power generation system planning: multicriteria optimization accounting for uncertainty factors

机译:发电系统规划的方法:多铁塔优化核算不确定性因素

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A practical approach to select a predetermined number of the best ("reasonable") alternatives from their vast initial set according to the given multiple criteria is proposed. The important aspect of this approach is devoted to accounting for uncertainty factors inherent in many problems related to long term planning. An implementation of the proposed approach in medium and long term planning of power generation system expansion is presented in this paper. The appropriate solution process includes the following stages: construction of an initial set of alternatives (ISA) as a dynamic-tree of combinations of new generating units in each year of the planning period; determination of a criteria assessment vector for each considered ISA alternative based on creation of the appropriate calculation models for each criterion. The set of all these criteria assessment vectors (ISCAV) is interrelated with ISA set; and using different multicriteria optimization techniques, modified to account for uncertainty factors and decision makers' opinions, for the ISCAV optimization in a framework of multi-variant computations in order to obtain the "stable" solutions adapted to intermediate results. These "stable" solutions enable reasonable alternatives to be obtained and in consequence a final solution (in a form desired by decision makers) can be achieved. Two computer program packages have been developed to implement the presented approach for the conditions prevailing in the Israeli electric system.
机译:提出了根据给定的多标准选择预定数量的最佳(“合理”)替代方案的实用方法。这种方法的重要方面致力于考虑在许多与长期规划相关的问题中固有的不确定性因素。本文介绍了在发电系统扩展中的中期和长期规划中提出的方法的实施。合适的解决方案过程包括以下阶段:初始的一组替代品(ISA),作为在每一年的规划期的新发电机组的组合的动态树的建设;基于对每个标准的适当计算模型的创建确定每个考虑的ISA替代的标准评估向量。所有这些标准评估向量(ISCAV)的集合与ISA集相互关联;并使用不同的多轨道优化技术,修改以解释不确定性因素和决策者的意见,对于多变量计算框架中的ISCAV优化,以获得适用于中间结果的“稳定”解决方案。这些“稳定”解决方案能够获得合理的替代方案,因此可以实现最终解决方案(以决策者所需的形式)。已经开发出两台计算机程序包以实现以色列电气系统中普遍存在的条件的所提出的方法。

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