THE PROBABILISTIC DESIGN SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT EXPERIENCE

摘要

Pratt and Whitney, under the sponsorship of the Air Force Materiel Command-Wright Laboratory/POT, is developing a Probabilistic Design System (PDS) for gas turbine rotors under a five year contract. The goal of the PDS program is to produce lower weight components by replacing well proven, but conservative, deterministic design methods with probabilistic design techniques. Key elements of constructing a probabilistic design system, lessons learned, future plans for probabilistic design system development at Pratt and Whitney, and the need for government and industry cooperation on introducing probabilistic techniques into military and space applications are the subjects of this paper.