Hydrogen infrastructure metrics for initial s-curve uncertainty

摘要

Scenarios, roadmaps and similar foresight methods are used to cope with uncertainty in areas with long planning horizon [1]. The literature also includes divergent views on the level at which driving factors should be considered. Hydrogen market penetration generally emerges slowly or not at all in 'Business as Usual' type scenarios. When strong government support is considered to overcome chicken-and-egg-problem [2], rapid penetration of hydrogen is estimated, usually associated with diffusion growth models [3]. The technology diffusion process has been formulated along the years as the one exhibiting logistic growth ("s-shaped curve") characteristics as showed in Figure 1. Is scenarios are more optimistic (green curve), moderated optimistic (blue curve) or pessimistic approach is considered (red curve), different results are obtained when we calculate the year when a 10% hydrogen penetration market occur. This can be seen as points A, B and C of Figure 1.