Scenario-Based Analysis of Electric Vehicle Penetration in Road Transportation in Laos

摘要

The penetration of EV (electric vehicle) technology in Lao road transportation, in this study, was analyzed by using the AIM/CGE [Laos] model. In line with the increase of number of road vehicles, the energy demand in transport sector has gradually increased, which resulted in a large amount of budget spent for fossil fuels import in last decade and high emission from transport sector. Lao government, in order to mitigate these issues, is promoting EV technology. The aim of this research is to analyze the impact of EVs' penetration on economy and CO2 emission in short-term, middle-term, and long-term. The cumulative CO2 emission from transport sector during 2020 to 2050 in BAU case will be 12,000 GgCO2 and those in the EV mitigation case will be 9,300 GgCO2 which likely accounts for 77% of cumulative CO2 emission reduction in road transport sector by introducing the EV technology. On the other hand, the GDP value will be gradually lost by up to one percent in 2050 due to the increase of cost of introducing the EV technology in Laos.