RISK MANAGEMENT IN NATURAL AND SOCIETAL SYSTEMS

摘要

The paper presents systemic approach to ensuring safety of natural-manmade-social systems that could be subjected to terrorist impacts. The theory of risks and methods to risk analysis that are used in assessing natural, manmade and societal crises and catastrophes, can be applied to assess risks of terrorist impacts as well. Such approach allows to study cascade-synergetic process, to reveal week elements of a system and to undertake measures for protection against terrorist attacks. The presented systemic description of risk allows to conduct a profound and comprehensive study of interaction between various elements of natural-manmade-socia! system, to select basic elements and to determine a possibility of terrorist impacts on them at local and systemic (global) levels taking into account the internal characteristics of the system.