Evaluating the Mutual Impacts between Global Warming and Industry Economy in Nanjing Based on Structural VAR Model

摘要

Presently, few researches consider about the dynamic mutual influences between meteorological factor and economic system. So the Impulse Response Function (IRF) and Variance Decomposition method based on SVAR model are adopted to make a try in this paper. First, multi-variable SVAR models are built with 3 variables (i.e. temperature, industry production value and GDP), and 3 restrictions are taken to make the models can be identified. Second, the dynamic impacts (i.e. structural shocks) between temperature and industry economy are analyzed through IRF method. At last, to use variance decomposition technique to show the mutual impacts degrees.