The use of Expert Judgement as the Method to Obtain Delay Time Values of Passive Barriers in the Context of the Physical Protection System

摘要

Due to its costly and time-consuming nature and a wide range of passive barrier elements and tools for their breaching, testing the delay time of passive barriers is only possible as an experimental tool to verify expert judgements of said delay times. The article focuses on the possibility of creating and utilizing a new method of acquiring values of delay time for various passive barrier elements using expert judgements which could add to the creation of charts where interactions between the used elements of mechanical barriers and the potential tools for their bypassing would be assigned a temporal value. The article consists of basic description of methods of expert judgements previously applied for making prognoses of socio-economic development and in other societal areas, which are called soft system. In terms of the problem of delay time, this method needed to be modified in such a way that the prospective output would be expressible by a specific quantitative value. To achieve this goal, each stage of the expert judgements was adjusted to the use of suitable scientific methods to select appropriate experts and then to achieve and process the expert data. High emphasis was placed on evaluation of quality and reliability of the expert judgements, which takes into account the specifics of expert selection such as their low numbers, specialization and practical experience.