Reliability Analysis for a Hybrid Microgrid based on Chronological Monte Carlo Simulation with Markov Switching Modeling

摘要

Hybrid microgrids (MG) are being deployed to solve grid unavailability issues. Reliability is one of the main concerns for microgrid owners and investors. The intermittency of renewable resources and the failure of microgrid components could lead to blackouts, suggesting the importance of reliability evaluation. MG reliability evaluation is suggested to be factored in the design process considering minimization of the initial and operating costs of the system. This work presents a methodology to evaluate the reliability of MG components and MG system availability. A combined methodology using Chronological Monte Carlo Simulation (CMCS) and Markov switching model (MSM) is used to evaluate the availability of the components and the energy production adequacy of a MG. A case study for a small commercial retail application is used as an example of how the methodology is applied. The results show that the installation of a fossil-based backup unit leads to higher reliability values than upsizing the existing components solution.